Download and read online The Mis Behaviour of Markets in PDF and EPUB This international bestseller, which foreshadowed a market crash, explains why it could happen again if we don't act now. Fractal geometry is the mathematics of roughness: how to reduce the outline of a jagged leaf or static in a computer connection to a few simple mathematical properties. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has got to the bottom of how financial markets really work. He finds they have a shifting sense of time and wild behaviour that makes them volatile, dangerous - and beautiful. In his models, the complex gyrations of the FTSE 100 and exchange rates can be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a much more accurate description of the risks involved.
Download and read online The Misbehavior of Markets in PDF and EPUB Mathematical superstar and inventor of fractal geometry, Benoit Mandelbrot, has spent the past forty years studying the underlying mathematics of space and natural patterns. What many of his followers don't realize is that he has also been watching patterns of market change. In The (Mis)Behavior of Markets, Mandelbrot joins with science journalist and former Wall Street Journal editor Richard L. Hudson to reveal what a fractal view of the world of finance looks like. The result is a revolutionary reevaluation of the standard tools and models of modern financial theory. Markets, we learn, are far riskier than we have wanted to believe. From the gyrations of IBM's stock price and the Dow, to cotton trading, and the dollar-Euro exchange rate--Mandelbrot shows that the world of finance can be understood in more accurate, and volatile, terms than the tired theories of yesteryear.The ability to simplify the complex has made Mandelbrot one of the century's most influential mathematicians. With The (Mis)Behavior of Markets, he puts the tools of higher mathematics into the hands of every person involved with markets, from financial analysts to economists to 401(k) holders. Markets will never be seen as "safe bets" again.
Download and read online Misbehaviour of Markets in PDF and EPUB The international bestseller that foreshadowed a market crash, with new material on the current financial crisis.
Download and read online Misbehaving The Making of Behavioral Economics in PDF and EPUB Get ready to change the way you think about economics. Richard H. Thaler has spent his career studying the radical notion that the central agents in the economy are humans—predictable, error-prone individuals. Misbehaving is his arresting, frequently hilarious account of the struggle to bring an academic discipline back down to earth—and change the way we think about economics, ourselves, and our world. Traditional economics assumes rational actors. Early in his research, Thaler realized these Spock-like automatons were nothing like real people. Whether buying a clock radio, selling basketball tickets, or applying for a mortgage, we all succumb to biases and make decisions that deviate from the standards of rationality assumed by economists. In other words, we misbehave. More importantly, our misbehavior has serious consequences. Dismissed at first by economists as an amusing sideshow, the study of human miscalculations and their effects on markets now drives efforts to make better decisions in our lives, our businesses, and our governments. Coupling recent discoveries in human psychology with a practical understanding of incentives and market behavior, Thaler enlightens readers about how to make smarter decisions in an increasingly mystifying world. He reveals how behavioral economic analysis opens up new ways to look at everything from household finance to assigning faculty offices in a new building, to TV game shows, the NFL draft, and businesses like Uber. Laced with antic stories of Thaler’s spirited battles with the bastions of traditional economic thinking, Misbehaving is a singular look into profound human foibles. When economics meets psychology, the implications for individuals, managers, and policy makers are both profound and entertaining. Shortlisted for the Financial Times & McKinsey Business Book of the Year Award
Download and read online Fractals and Scaling in Finance in PDF and EPUB Mandelbrot is world famous for his creation of the new mathematics of fractal geometry. Yet few people know that his original field of applied research was in econometrics and financial models, applying ideas of scaling and self-similarity to arrays of data generated by financial analyses. This book brings together his original papers as well as many original chapters specifically written for this book.
Download and read online The Fractalist in PDF and EPUB A fascinating memoir from the man who revitalized visual geometry, and whose ideas about fractals have changed how we look at both the natural world and the financial world. Benoit Mandelbrot, the creator of fractal geometry, has significantly improved our understanding of, among other things, financial variability and erratic physical phenomena. In The Fractalist, Mandelbrot recounts the high points of his life with exuberance and an eloquent fluency, deepening our understanding of the evolution of his extraordinary mind. We begin with his early years: born in Warsaw in 1924 to a Lithuanian Jewish family, Mandelbrot moved with his family to Paris in the 1930s, where he was mentored by an eminent mathematician uncle. During World War II, as he stayed barely one step ahead of the Nazis until France was liberated, he studied geometry on his own and dreamed of using it to solve fresh, real-world problems. We observe his unusually broad education in Europe, and later at Caltech, Princeton, and MIT. We learn about his thirty-five-year affiliation with IBM’s Thomas J. Watson Research Center and his association with Harvard and Yale. An outsider to mainstream scientific research, he managed to do what others had thought impossible: develop a new geometry that combines revelatory beauty with a radical way of unfolding formerly hidden laws governing utter roughness, turbulence, and chaos. Here is a remarkable story of both the man’s life and his unparalleled contributions to science, mathematics, and the arts.
Download and read online Fractal Market Analysis in PDF and EPUB By using fractals and rescaled range plus nonlinear dynamic models, Ed Peters explains turbulent market behavior, offers fresh insights into risk and volatility, and demystifies price and market movements. Whatever your trading and investment goals, FRACTAL MARKET ANALYSIS delivers the realistic economic and mathematical structure you need to enhance your asset valuation and portfolio selection strategies.
Download and read online Why Stock Markets Crash in PDF and EPUB The scientific study of complex systems has transformed a wide range of disciplines in recent years, enabling researchers in both the natural and social sciences to model and predict phenomena as diverse as earthquakes, global warming, demographic patterns, financial crises, and the failure of materials. In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash. Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050. Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe. Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome Why Stock Markets Crash as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.
Download and read online The Physics of Wall Street in PDF and EPUB A Harvard scholar argues that mathematical models can provide solutions to current economic challenges, explaining that the economic meltdown of 2008 was based on a misunderstanding of scientific models rather than on the models themselves.
Download and read online The Power of Customer Misbehavior in PDF and EPUB To stay competitive, firms need to build great products but they also need to lend these products to the uses and misuses of their customers and learn extensively from them. This is the first book to explore the idea that allowing customers to adapt features in online products or services to suit their needs is the key to viral growth.
Download and read online Lecturing Birds on Flying in PDF and EPUB Praise for Lecturing Birds On Flying "Finally, a book taking a critical look at quantitative finance models, illuminating both their flawed fantasy assumptions as well as the uncritical use of such models on Wall Street, in many cases, leading to billion dollar losses. Pablo Triana knows both the financial industry and the academic community from the inside. A must-read for anyone interested in finance." —Dr. Espen Gaarder Haug, trader, thinker, and author of Derivatives Models on Models "A thoroughly readable explanation of the problems that have beset the models and quantitative techniques that have underpinned so much of finance in recent years. If only the bankers had heeded this message a few years before, we might not be in such a big mess today." —Gillian Tett, Assistant Editor of the Financial Times, overseeing global financial markets coverage, and author of Fool's Gold "Pablo Triana dismembers quantitative finance, in theory and in practice, with expertise, anger,and an excellent eye for the illuminating anecdote. By the time he has finished marshalling his evidence, his call to replace complex equations with something more like common sense sounds like, well, common sense." —Edward Hadas, Assistant Editor at Breakingviews.com; and author of Human Goods, Economic Evils: A Moral Approach to the Dismal Science "Pablo Triana is an entertaining and engaging writer, even on the dry subject of finance theory. His debunking of conventional wisdom is a treat." —Pauline Skypala, Editor, FTfm, Financial Times "Triana's book is an unrelenting fusillade of detailed and irrefutable arguments against financial theorems and those who teach them. It should, by rights, spark a revolution in both investment banks and business schools. But, at the very least, it is required reading for anyone who would regulate the finance industry." —Felix Salmon, Finance Blogger, Reuters
Download and read online Bull in PDF and EPUB In 1982, the Dow hovered below 1000. Then, the market rose and rapidly gained speed until it peaked above 11,000. Noted journalist and financial reporter Maggie Mahar has written the first book on the remarkable bull market that began in 1982 and ended just in the early 2000s. For almost two decades, a colorful cast of characters such as Abby Joseph Cohen, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget, and Alan Greenspan came to dominate the market news. This inside look at that 17-year cycle of growth, built upon interviews and unparalleled access to the most important analysts, market observers, and fund managers who eagerly tell the tales of excesses, presents the period with a historical perspective and explains what really happened and why.
Download and read online The Dao of Capital in PDF and EPUB As today's preeminent doomsday investor Mark Spitznagel describes his Daoist and roundabout investment approach, “one gains by losing and loses by gaining.” This is Austrian Investing, an archetypal, counterintuitive, and proven approach, gleaned from the 150-year-old Austrian School of economics, that is both timeless and exceedingly timely. In The Dao of Capital, hedge fund manager and tail-hedging pioneer Mark Spitznagel—with one of the top returns on capital of the financial crisis, as well as over a career—takes us on a gripping, circuitous journey from the Chicago trading pits, over the coniferous boreal forests and canonical strategists from Warring States China to Napoleonic Europe to burgeoning industrial America, to the great economic thinkers of late 19th century Austria. We arrive at his central investment methodology of Austrian Investing, where victory comes not from waging the immediate decisive battle, but rather from the roundabout approach of seeking the intermediate positional advantage (what he calls shi), of aiming at the indirect means rather than directly at the ends. The monumental challenge is in seeing time differently, in a whole new intertemporal dimension, one that is so contrary to our wiring. Spitznagel is the first to condense the theories of Ludwig von Mises and his Austrian School of economics into a cohesive and—as Spitznagel has shown—highly effective investment methodology. From identifying the monetary distortions and non-randomness of stock market routs (Spitznagel's bread and butter) to scorned highly-productive assets, in Ron Paul's words from the foreword, Spitznagel “brings Austrian economics from the ivory tower to the investment portfolio.” The Dao of Capital provides a rare and accessible look through the lens of one of today's great investors to discover a profound harmony with the market process—a harmony that is so essential today.
Download and read online Fooled by Randomness in PDF and EPUB Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. “[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.” –Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives. From the Trade Paperback edition.
Download and read online Modern Bank Behaviour in PDF and EPUB This book presents an updated insight into key facts impacting on financial institutions after the financial crisis and highlights areas of major policy and academic interest. This book includes ten chapters that analyse the different perspectives and approaches behind issues such us payment protection insurance, intellectual capital, cost efficiency and its relation with bank branch distance, bank restructuring and bank stability, credit and liquidity risk,and business models for the wealth management industry.